If you had talked to me recently (or read my blog update), you might have known I was gearing up for my first marathon in 6 years. I often like to write down what I was thinking and how I was feeling before a race, and similarly record my post-race reaction. I want to circle back, and fill in that part, but since I have 26.2 miles to cover, I'll break with my normal practice and jump right into the race.
The background info I'll quickly note is when I signed up for the race my goal was 2:33 - 2:35 (5:50 - 5:55 pace). After running most my "marathon pace" workouts in the low 5:40s, I was more optimistic, but still wanted a conservative race plan - to run the first half marathon in 1:16:00 - 1:17:00 (5:48 - 5:52 pace).
The race morning was much like my last marathon 6 years ago - clear skies, calm winds, but pretty chilly (in the high 30s). Just after daylight broke, I found myself on the starting line with a pair of gloves and arm-warmers. Even though this wasn't a Chicago Marathon type field, I knew there enough elite runners - particularly those gunning for their last chance to make the Olympic Trials next month - that I didn't need to be anywhere close to the front row. I figured spotting some of my eventual competitors 10 seconds early on was easily worth the trade off of not getting sucked into way too fast of an early pace.
As the starting horn went off, and I cross the start line 3 seconds later, it just didn't feel like a race. It felt like a long run with a ton of other people, just a bit faster than my normal everyday running pace. I chatted with other runners I knew as we all settled into our paces. Shortly after the start I saw a large pack of women who I figured were gunning for their Olympic trials standard of 2:46 (and sure enough quite of few of them nailed it). As the first few miles are mostly downhill I eased into a smooth comfortable pace, and slowly moved forward in the large pack. The first mile was 5:48. I was almost relieved - I was going fast enough but not too fast! The second split was 5:52. I quickly questioned - was that too slow? was that too much effort? But just as quick, I shut the mental rambling off - I had well over 2 overs left to run, and I was still getting warmed up, and there would surely be a lot of ups and downs.
In the 3rd mile I definitely started to feel good. I figured out pretty early in the race that I was going to run my own race, rather than try to key off other runners. Mile 3 was 5:38 - faster than I should be running this early, but didn't concern me as we're still going downhill. Now I'm reeling in a large pack that includes the 3 female leaders, plus a couple West Valley teammates who are shooting to run sub 2:30. The 4th mile was 5:33. WHOA BUDDY - CHILL OUT! At this point I pretty much slam on the breaks. The last mile felt totally relaxed, but I knew there was probably no better way to torpedo a good marathon opportunity than to run way too fast in the first quarter of the race.
From the 5th mile through the half way point, I established a really smooth consistent rhythm. Through that stretch - every mile split was 5:42-5:44 (other than one 5:40). I was doing exactly what I told myself not to do - running faster than the 1:16 pace I set as a speed limit, but it just felt too easy not to put myself in a position to possibly break 2:30. The short uphills would strain my breathing ever so slightly, but it would quickly return to normal on the flat & downhill sections. At some point - probably around 6 miles - I felt the first hint of lactic acid in my legs, but nothing to fear, it had to happen at some point. I just focused on keeping a smooth relaxed stride.
The pack of runners who I almost caught in the 4th mile, remained 50 or meters ahead. Right around the 9th mile I finally caught up to them, announcing my presence to teammates Jonah B. and Jason "The Rookie". The Rookie let out an excited "Hey Gifford!" while Jonah said much more calmly "Jamey's going for it." I really thought I would relax and just run with this pack for a while. However, the pace I had settled into slowly eased me ahead of the group. Just ahead, I caught the three lead woman - one American and two Africans. There were a handful of bicycles riding along side along with a motorcycle cop. It was unclear if they were on course support for the leaders or just interested spectators. One of the bikes was almost blocking my path to a water station; I knew getting worked up would only take away energy I needed to run, so I just eased off for a couple strides and cut over. Just before 11 miles I pulled ahead of the women, but didn't realize I was serving as their temporary rabbit until I heard some words in Swahili (I assumed) right behind me. That was a new experience for me!
I hit the half marathon split - now just clear of the lead women - in 1:14:53. So much for my planned pacing. While I wouldn't call the effort really hard at this point, it definitely wasn't easy. Mentally the first half of the race went by very quickly. I knew the second half would be a lot harder. Different parts of my legs and feet would ache, then go away. I could deal with discomfort, I just didn't want to see anything turn into a muscle cramp. The 15th and 16th miles were tough. The mile 15 split was 5:52 - my first mile slower than 5:45 since the 2nd mile. I'd lie if there wasn't a little concern that my early pace might be catching up with me. Shortly after that, I hear footsteps behind - and it's The Rookie and Gus Gibbs (who had taken a pee stop) blowing past me as their running ~5:30 splits. They invite me to jump on the train, but I'm not feeling it; I just need to keep my own race on track.
After a rough couple miles, I hit the mile 16 with a 5:43 split. I was back on pace. I felt a big confidence boost. Only 10 miles to go. This might be the toughest 10 miles I'll run all year, but how many times have I run 10 miles the past 4 months (that was rhetorical)?
From mile 16 - 20 it was back to focusing on a smooth stride. My legs were hurting pretty consistently now, but I could deal with it. I would see runners well ahead and slowly reel them in. Mile 19 was my second fastest of the race in 5:37. I started having visions of throwing the hammer down in the last 6 miles to put myself well under 2:30.
The 20 mile mark was announced with a couple fake walls that you run between & a couple women dressed in grim reaper costumes. I grabbed my last Gu gel, which just about made me barf. After taking as much sports drink as I could, I figured I wouldn't need much more water. Mile 21 was 5:43, but the legs were feeling really beat up. The last hill of the course was the ramp to a bridge over the American River just before the 22 mark. It's not a steep hill, but it HURTS at this point. I tried to hold my pace up the ramp, but it hurt, and my legs never came back to me after that.
The last four miles were rough. I knew I was slowing down a little, but it was time to just grit it out. Somehow I was still mostly passing people. Miles 23 and 24 were both 5:53. I'm slowing down, but the wheels aren't falling off. With two miles to go a couple runners catch me, and I just try to latch on. I'm even thinking I can find a gear and manage to run a couple fairly fast last miles. But where the brain was willing the legs weren't. Mile 25 was still a respectable 5:48, but then I just hit a level of pain I hadn't felt all race. The 26th mile is a long straight shot down L street by the state capitol in Sacramento. I keep looking ahead toward the first of two left turns before finishing right in front of the capitol. As I look ahead it just doesn't seem to get closer. Spectators cheer my effort, but as I grit I had to yell "let's go Gifford". Somehow I thought I was thinking my finishing time might be 2:32, but that was clearly a lack of mental capacity late in the race.
I hit the 26 split - 5:55 - my slowest of the race, but was elated I made the first left turn too see a race clock just over 2:30. There was a huge crowd, and I made the final turn to the finish line with a huge smile on my face.
The final time was 2:30:29!
I'll say more in part 2, but have to say a quick thanks to my wife Dana - of course for supporting my training, but for getting out on the course to cheer and support me. Also to our coach Jack, for preparing us, and for great race day support as well.
Being the excel dork I am, here are a couple charts - the first with each mile split, and the second my projected finishing pace at each mile mark:
Finally - it was great to see little Jack at the finish line :)
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Saturday, December 3, 2011
PA Cross Country Championships
My life hasn't been all marathon training. On November 20th, I laced up my spikes for one of my favorite annual races - the PA Cross Country Championships. The race - 3 times around a hilly 2 mile loop in SF's Golden Gate Park. It's a nice challenging race to cap off the cross country season, and fun to get all the club teams together in the same race.
With rain falling for much of the week leading up, I knew it would be muddy one! Here's a quick recap.
I have to say in all my years of cross country, that this was probably the sloppiest course that I have ever run on! It was muddy last year, but my footing was firm enough with spikes on. This year I was sliding all over the place even with my spikes on. After watching the men's master's race, I noticed there was a tight lead pack of 5-6 runners but after that the field spread out quickly. In past PA Champs I liked to go out pretty conservatively on the first loop, then work my way up, but this year I was thinking "track position" (to use a NASCAR term) seemed pretty important. I had confidence from my increased mileage and the longer tempo work from marathon training that I could hold on after a quicker early pace. It was a weird experience to be within 5 seconds of teammate Neville Davey (who has won several PA races recently) & others at the mile mark, but a quick internal systems check told me the pace was ok. I gave up a few positions at the end of the first loop as I let myself regroup, then started moving forward again at the bottom of the hill on the second loop. Close to halfway the race seemed to be going by fast. 3 miles in I felt confident I could keep pressing hard without blowing up, so I made an effort to surge by any runners who appeared to be falling back. On the 3rd and final loop I was battling with a strawberry canyon runner. He opened a 5 second gap on the flat section by the polo field. Up the last hill and down into the meadow I was reeling him in, but just ran out of room near the finish as he crossed 1 second in front. While this wasn't my best time ever on the course (I ran about a minute faster under dry conditions), I feel pretty good that this was my best effort of the 5 PA champs I've run. Final results - 32nd place in 33:34 (6.1 miles)
It's now the day before CIM. We're about to load up the car for Sacramento. I'll check back in after the race!
With rain falling for much of the week leading up, I knew it would be muddy one! Here's a quick recap.
I have to say in all my years of cross country, that this was probably the sloppiest course that I have ever run on! It was muddy last year, but my footing was firm enough with spikes on. This year I was sliding all over the place even with my spikes on. After watching the men's master's race, I noticed there was a tight lead pack of 5-6 runners but after that the field spread out quickly. In past PA Champs I liked to go out pretty conservatively on the first loop, then work my way up, but this year I was thinking "track position" (to use a NASCAR term) seemed pretty important. I had confidence from my increased mileage and the longer tempo work from marathon training that I could hold on after a quicker early pace. It was a weird experience to be within 5 seconds of teammate Neville Davey (who has won several PA races recently) & others at the mile mark, but a quick internal systems check told me the pace was ok. I gave up a few positions at the end of the first loop as I let myself regroup, then started moving forward again at the bottom of the hill on the second loop. Close to halfway the race seemed to be going by fast. 3 miles in I felt confident I could keep pressing hard without blowing up, so I made an effort to surge by any runners who appeared to be falling back. On the 3rd and final loop I was battling with a strawberry canyon runner. He opened a 5 second gap on the flat section by the polo field. Up the last hill and down into the meadow I was reeling him in, but just ran out of room near the finish as he crossed 1 second in front. While this wasn't my best time ever on the course (I ran about a minute faster under dry conditions), I feel pretty good that this was my best effort of the 5 PA champs I've run. Final results - 32nd place in 33:34 (6.1 miles)
It's now the day before CIM. We're about to load up the car for Sacramento. I'll check back in after the race!
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Feeling the Marathon Groove
For most of my life, most of the people who have known me, know that I'm a runner. And man, if I had a dollar for every time I heard:
How many marathons have you run?
Oh you so run a lot of marathons?
What's your fastest marathon?
I always kept a few snarky responses in my repitoir like "I like to run fast, not far" or "Oprah ran a marathon, real men run fast." Usually I would be far more gracious and briefly explain how I like traing to get faster at shorter distances (as if running 5K's and 10K's makes me a sprinter).
In 2005 - when I was 3 years out of college, I felt like I needed a project outside of work. It's not terribly far from the truth to say that I finally realized it would be less work to just go run a marathon rather than keep explaining why I've never run one. I turned my 3 - 4 days a week of afternoon 4 or 5 mile runs into the same distance 5 days a week plus a weekend long run. I showed up at the California International Marathon, and dispite some digestive complications ran a solid 2:43. That 20 mile bonk never happened, in fact I didn't slow at all in the later miles, it just started to hurt worse and worse!
After that 2005 CIM I was excited to run another, but as other interests crept into my life, I was running less and less... A few years later, I joined the West Valley Track Club & started training again, but I was having so much fun working on getting my speed back, that I never looked toward the 26.2 distance, at least not in the near term.
Heading into this fall's cross country season, I knew I needed more overall endurance. The couple years I have been comfortable rolling on fast intervals on the track, but couldn't hold paces anywhere close during races of 5K and longer. I always like hearing what elite runners have to about their races, and something that my college teammate Lauren Fleshman said really struck me. Lauren finished a very impressive 7th at the World Championships 5,000 meter race, staying in contact with the leaders until 2 laps to go! Afterward she was asked if she would work on her speed so that she could run a 60 second last lap like the best in the world could do. Her response (paraphrased) - I've run 60 seconds at the end of a 5K before, but off a slower pace. I don't need more speed, I need more strength so I can tap into my speed at the end of a fast pace like this.
I had been realizing the same thing about my running. All the track speed in the world won't help me run a 5K or 10K if the wheels are going to fall off after 10 minutes of hard running. I also looked back at prior seasons and just saw myself taking way too many short cuts. I needed that true pyramid style training program. First build the volume, then the endurance, then after the foundation was in place start working on the higher quality work.
Over the summer I looked to build my mileage to consistently be at 60-70 miles per week, with frequent tempo and progression runs, and finally long runs around 2 hours (~17 miles). Other than occasional strides, I wasn't worried about tapping into speed and fast interval work until well after the cross country races started in late August. Somewhere in the back of my mind, I had the thought - if everything goes well, let's look toward finally returning to the Cal International Marathon, 6 years later.
Building endurance (or as runners call it "strength") over sharpness worked well. Out of the 6 PA cross country races I ran, I hit my fastest times ever on 4 of those courses. In late September & early October, when it came time to add more race specific fitness, the workout paces felt fast, but I found myself just not getting as tired toward the end of workouts as I used to.
Encouraged by my mileage, and the consistency of my longer workouts, I decided to pull the trigger and enter this year's CIM. Still I felt the need to cap my training cycle with a good 3 weeks of high volume, and marathon specific workouts. Over the previous three weeks, I hit weekly mileage over 70, and long runs of 20, 20, 23, 21 miles. Toward the end of last week, the training was taking it's toll. I was tired most the time, and ALWAYS sore. I told my wife that I was loving the feeling of being fit, but really looking forward to starting my taper.
Finally last Sunday, the last day of that three week (plus one day counting the previous week's long run) stretch, was the day to do my toughest marathon workout. The idea was to run 8 miles, starting slow then progressing the pace, then finishing with 12 miles at marathon pace - targeting 5:50 to 5:55 per mile. I woke up super early to eat so that I could start the workout at 7am - the time the race would be starting. Sawyer Camp in San Mateo is a favorite place to work out with it's half mile distance markers and scenic views. The first 8 miles went smoothly, I started at 7 min per mile and ended just over 6 min pace, averaging 6:25 / mile. Back at the car I quickly changed to some lighter shoes, ate a gel, and headed out for the fun part. The excitement got to me quickly as I rolled through the first mile in 5:35. That was lesson 1 of what not to do in the race. I settled down and then ran between 5:45 - 5:50 for the next 3 miles. I was going faster than I intended but felt comfortable enough. Miles 5 and 6 were uphill, so I wasn't worred the pace was slower than 6:00. At the turn around, I let gravity do the work running 5:25 and 5:30 for 7 & 8. I knew the last 4 miles would be tough as I'd be tired and going from downhill to flat running again. Regardless the pace never wavered as I hit splits of 5:34 - 5:38 for the last 4. My average pace for the 12 miles was 5:43 pace - exactly 2:30 marathon pace!
It's great when you have that one workout that gives you a huge confidence boost heding into a big race. I was feeling the marathon groove. The race is 15 days away, I'm ready to go!
How many marathons have you run?
Oh you so run a lot of marathons?
What's your fastest marathon?
I always kept a few snarky responses in my repitoir like "I like to run fast, not far" or "Oprah ran a marathon, real men run fast." Usually I would be far more gracious and briefly explain how I like traing to get faster at shorter distances (as if running 5K's and 10K's makes me a sprinter).
In 2005 - when I was 3 years out of college, I felt like I needed a project outside of work. It's not terribly far from the truth to say that I finally realized it would be less work to just go run a marathon rather than keep explaining why I've never run one. I turned my 3 - 4 days a week of afternoon 4 or 5 mile runs into the same distance 5 days a week plus a weekend long run. I showed up at the California International Marathon, and dispite some digestive complications ran a solid 2:43. That 20 mile bonk never happened, in fact I didn't slow at all in the later miles, it just started to hurt worse and worse!
After that 2005 CIM I was excited to run another, but as other interests crept into my life, I was running less and less... A few years later, I joined the West Valley Track Club & started training again, but I was having so much fun working on getting my speed back, that I never looked toward the 26.2 distance, at least not in the near term.
Heading into this fall's cross country season, I knew I needed more overall endurance. The couple years I have been comfortable rolling on fast intervals on the track, but couldn't hold paces anywhere close during races of 5K and longer. I always like hearing what elite runners have to about their races, and something that my college teammate Lauren Fleshman said really struck me. Lauren finished a very impressive 7th at the World Championships 5,000 meter race, staying in contact with the leaders until 2 laps to go! Afterward she was asked if she would work on her speed so that she could run a 60 second last lap like the best in the world could do. Her response (paraphrased) - I've run 60 seconds at the end of a 5K before, but off a slower pace. I don't need more speed, I need more strength so I can tap into my speed at the end of a fast pace like this.
I had been realizing the same thing about my running. All the track speed in the world won't help me run a 5K or 10K if the wheels are going to fall off after 10 minutes of hard running. I also looked back at prior seasons and just saw myself taking way too many short cuts. I needed that true pyramid style training program. First build the volume, then the endurance, then after the foundation was in place start working on the higher quality work.
Over the summer I looked to build my mileage to consistently be at 60-70 miles per week, with frequent tempo and progression runs, and finally long runs around 2 hours (~17 miles). Other than occasional strides, I wasn't worried about tapping into speed and fast interval work until well after the cross country races started in late August. Somewhere in the back of my mind, I had the thought - if everything goes well, let's look toward finally returning to the Cal International Marathon, 6 years later.
Building endurance (or as runners call it "strength") over sharpness worked well. Out of the 6 PA cross country races I ran, I hit my fastest times ever on 4 of those courses. In late September & early October, when it came time to add more race specific fitness, the workout paces felt fast, but I found myself just not getting as tired toward the end of workouts as I used to.
Encouraged by my mileage, and the consistency of my longer workouts, I decided to pull the trigger and enter this year's CIM. Still I felt the need to cap my training cycle with a good 3 weeks of high volume, and marathon specific workouts. Over the previous three weeks, I hit weekly mileage over 70, and long runs of 20, 20, 23, 21 miles. Toward the end of last week, the training was taking it's toll. I was tired most the time, and ALWAYS sore. I told my wife that I was loving the feeling of being fit, but really looking forward to starting my taper.
Finally last Sunday, the last day of that three week (plus one day counting the previous week's long run) stretch, was the day to do my toughest marathon workout. The idea was to run 8 miles, starting slow then progressing the pace, then finishing with 12 miles at marathon pace - targeting 5:50 to 5:55 per mile. I woke up super early to eat so that I could start the workout at 7am - the time the race would be starting. Sawyer Camp in San Mateo is a favorite place to work out with it's half mile distance markers and scenic views. The first 8 miles went smoothly, I started at 7 min per mile and ended just over 6 min pace, averaging 6:25 / mile. Back at the car I quickly changed to some lighter shoes, ate a gel, and headed out for the fun part. The excitement got to me quickly as I rolled through the first mile in 5:35. That was lesson 1 of what not to do in the race. I settled down and then ran between 5:45 - 5:50 for the next 3 miles. I was going faster than I intended but felt comfortable enough. Miles 5 and 6 were uphill, so I wasn't worred the pace was slower than 6:00. At the turn around, I let gravity do the work running 5:25 and 5:30 for 7 & 8. I knew the last 4 miles would be tough as I'd be tired and going from downhill to flat running again. Regardless the pace never wavered as I hit splits of 5:34 - 5:38 for the last 4. My average pace for the 12 miles was 5:43 pace - exactly 2:30 marathon pace!
It's great when you have that one workout that gives you a huge confidence boost heding into a big race. I was feeling the marathon groove. The race is 15 days away, I'm ready to go!
Thursday, November 10, 2011
What's new?
This little guy!
Jack Gifford was born on September 6th, and Dana & I have really been enjoying being a family now.
So, I think I can be forgiven for not updating my blog in a while. Right? I've mostly used my blog as a platform to write about my training, racing, and recovering. Before we had our baby, I talked to Dana about wanting to keep training. I've found that I have to be much more efficient with my time (stretching, huh?) but after taking a consistent & balanced approach, I'm healthy and in as good of shape as I've been at any point since college.
As if parenthood isn't enough of a challenge - and believe me it is - I've signed up for the California International Marathon on December 6th.
I'm sure Jack will make occasional appearances here, but in the coming weeks (hopefully) Dana and I will set up a baby blog. I love when people I don't know stumble across this blog, and take it as a very nice compliment to receive comments. But in a crazy occupy this occupy that world, I think it's best to have a private blog if we're going to give info about the comings and goings of our family. So, if you're a friend or family I'll be happy to give access once we set it up (you can email trackgiff@yahoo.com).
Finally - let's go Stanford & beat those Ducks!
Jack Gifford was born on September 6th, and Dana & I have really been enjoying being a family now.
So, I think I can be forgiven for not updating my blog in a while. Right? I've mostly used my blog as a platform to write about my training, racing, and recovering. Before we had our baby, I talked to Dana about wanting to keep training. I've found that I have to be much more efficient with my time (stretching, huh?) but after taking a consistent & balanced approach, I'm healthy and in as good of shape as I've been at any point since college.
As if parenthood isn't enough of a challenge - and believe me it is - I've signed up for the California International Marathon on December 6th.
I'm sure Jack will make occasional appearances here, but in the coming weeks (hopefully) Dana and I will set up a baby blog. I love when people I don't know stumble across this blog, and take it as a very nice compliment to receive comments. But in a crazy occupy this occupy that world, I think it's best to have a private blog if we're going to give info about the comings and goings of our family. So, if you're a friend or family I'll be happy to give access once we set it up (you can email trackgiff@yahoo.com).
Finally - let's go Stanford & beat those Ducks!
Sunday, October 2, 2011
NASCAR Chase to the Championship odds
Yes, when I started this blog, I threatened to write about NASCAR from time to time. Since it's been 2 years, I think it's time!
The NASCAR season is two races into its ten race Chase to the Championship playoff format. I've really enjoyed the season so far, with its multiple first time winners - starting with 20 year old Trevor Bayne's shocker at Daytona - and excellent feuds like Jimmie Johnson vs Kurt Busch.
So just before the green flag drops at race #3 Dover, here is how I see each of the 12 eligible drivers chances. (Drivers are listed in order of their current rank with # of points behind the leader. At each race 1 point is awarded for 43rd place, increasing 1 point per place up to 42 points for 2nd, and 47 points for the win).
Driver (Points back) Odds to win the Chase
#1 Tony Stewart (0) 12-1 odds
Stewart barely qualified for the Chase after struggling throughout the summer. Then he comes in and wins the first two races of the playoff to take the points lead and place himself well ahead of pre-chase favorites like Jimmie Johnson & Kyle Busch. I'm not convinced yet. Tony was very impressive the last two weeks, but on the whole it has still been a slightly better than mediocre year.
#2 Kevin Harvick (-7) 8-1 odds
I think Harvick will end up being a lot more dangerous in this Chase than Tony Stewart. Over the past few years Harvick has proven himself good at winning races he shouldn't have won. If he can win 2 or 3 races he'll be in a great spot. His weakness was his lack of consistency throughout the season. It only takes a couple mid pack finishes to put your championship dreams in jeopardy.
#3 Brad Keselowski (-11) 5-1 odds
In early July I wouldn't have even taken 5-1 odds on BK making the Chase. Then after improving throughout July, he won at Pocono, followed by a 2nd, then a 3rd, then another win at Bristol. In the last 8 races, his worst finish was 12th, and second worst finish was 6th. History would suggest his current streak has to cool off at some point. If he runs the next 8 races anywhere close to as well as the last 8, then he'll be hoisting the Sprint Cup trophy after the Homestead race, and there won't be anyone close to him.
#4 Carl Edwards (-14) 7-2 odds
Edwards is officially my favorite to win the Cup this year. He is tied for the most top 5's (13) and has more top 10's (19) than any other driver. Edwards will look forward to 4 more mile and a half tracks where he runs better than any other driver. His weakness is that he only has one win on the season. I'll say this - he won't win the championhip without winning at least one race - most likely at Kansas, Charlotte, or Texas.
#5 Jeff Gordon (-23) 8-1 odds
Gordon is the first of several contenders who dug himself into an early hole with a 24th place finish at Chicago. The 40 year old is far from out of it. He was run well, and he's been there before - it's just been been a while!
#6 Kyle Busch (-26) 10-1 odds
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Kyle Busch is the most talented driver in NASCAR. He's still only 26 years old with 23 wins at the Cup level (not to mention a gazillion in the lower series). Kyle is tied for the most wins (4) and top 5's (13) this season. If Kyle does what he is best at - winning races - he will be the champion. His past weakness was a lack of maturity. He has to find a way to run well on those days when things aren't going right. He's gotten much better this year, and when he finally gets a full handle on his emotions, he'll be a multiple time Cup champion
#7 Matt Kenseth (-26) 20-1 odds
Kenseth is a past champion, but it was before NASCAR introduced the playoff format. He has had a solid year and will have a solid Chase, but unless several other drivers have a lot of bad luck, Kenseth won't be a real factor.
#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-26) 100-1 odds
Dale Jr is that guy who almost everyone is pulling for. Early career success suggested he had the talent his dad did. Unfortunatley I think he's more like the next Kyle Petty. Making the Chase was a big improvement over prior years. The best they can hope for is to visit victory lane once this year.
#9 Kurt Busch (-28) 22-1 odds
Kurt (Kyle's older brother) is one of five past champions in the Chase. Earlier in the season he looked like a real contender, but has put himself in a tough spot after two races into the Chase. His only chance of getting back in this is to figure out what his teammate Brad Keselowski has done to run so well lately.
#10 Jimmie Johnson (-29) 7-1 odds
I can't believe JJ is sitting where he is. Two years ago I predicted he would win his 4th straight championship, and he did. Last year I said his run was over, and I was wrong! This year, I really think his reign is over, but his odds are still decent, because no other team can overcome adversity like the 48.
#11 Ryan Newman (-34) 200-1 odds
Newman's season was a big improvement over prior years, but he was never championship material even before falling way behind. I expect him to just fall further back over the coming weeks.
#12 Denny Hamlin (-66) 125-1 odds
Last year Denny almost won the championship. This year they have been terrible. Well, maybe not terrible, but he was the last driver to make the chase, and after two bad runs has dug himself into a deeper hole. If he wins at Taladega while the other 11 drivers crash, then he'll have a chance, but still not a good one.
We'll check back in late November and see how I did!
The NASCAR season is two races into its ten race Chase to the Championship playoff format. I've really enjoyed the season so far, with its multiple first time winners - starting with 20 year old Trevor Bayne's shocker at Daytona - and excellent feuds like Jimmie Johnson vs Kurt Busch.
So just before the green flag drops at race #3 Dover, here is how I see each of the 12 eligible drivers chances. (Drivers are listed in order of their current rank with # of points behind the leader. At each race 1 point is awarded for 43rd place, increasing 1 point per place up to 42 points for 2nd, and 47 points for the win).
Driver (Points back) Odds to win the Chase
#1 Tony Stewart (0) 12-1 odds
Stewart barely qualified for the Chase after struggling throughout the summer. Then he comes in and wins the first two races of the playoff to take the points lead and place himself well ahead of pre-chase favorites like Jimmie Johnson & Kyle Busch. I'm not convinced yet. Tony was very impressive the last two weeks, but on the whole it has still been a slightly better than mediocre year.
#2 Kevin Harvick (-7) 8-1 odds
I think Harvick will end up being a lot more dangerous in this Chase than Tony Stewart. Over the past few years Harvick has proven himself good at winning races he shouldn't have won. If he can win 2 or 3 races he'll be in a great spot. His weakness was his lack of consistency throughout the season. It only takes a couple mid pack finishes to put your championship dreams in jeopardy.
#3 Brad Keselowski (-11) 5-1 odds
In early July I wouldn't have even taken 5-1 odds on BK making the Chase. Then after improving throughout July, he won at Pocono, followed by a 2nd, then a 3rd, then another win at Bristol. In the last 8 races, his worst finish was 12th, and second worst finish was 6th. History would suggest his current streak has to cool off at some point. If he runs the next 8 races anywhere close to as well as the last 8, then he'll be hoisting the Sprint Cup trophy after the Homestead race, and there won't be anyone close to him.
#4 Carl Edwards (-14) 7-2 odds
Edwards is officially my favorite to win the Cup this year. He is tied for the most top 5's (13) and has more top 10's (19) than any other driver. Edwards will look forward to 4 more mile and a half tracks where he runs better than any other driver. His weakness is that he only has one win on the season. I'll say this - he won't win the championhip without winning at least one race - most likely at Kansas, Charlotte, or Texas.
#5 Jeff Gordon (-23) 8-1 odds
Gordon is the first of several contenders who dug himself into an early hole with a 24th place finish at Chicago. The 40 year old is far from out of it. He was run well, and he's been there before - it's just been been a while!
#6 Kyle Busch (-26) 10-1 odds
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Kyle Busch is the most talented driver in NASCAR. He's still only 26 years old with 23 wins at the Cup level (not to mention a gazillion in the lower series). Kyle is tied for the most wins (4) and top 5's (13) this season. If Kyle does what he is best at - winning races - he will be the champion. His past weakness was a lack of maturity. He has to find a way to run well on those days when things aren't going right. He's gotten much better this year, and when he finally gets a full handle on his emotions, he'll be a multiple time Cup champion
#7 Matt Kenseth (-26) 20-1 odds
Kenseth is a past champion, but it was before NASCAR introduced the playoff format. He has had a solid year and will have a solid Chase, but unless several other drivers have a lot of bad luck, Kenseth won't be a real factor.
#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-26) 100-1 odds
Dale Jr is that guy who almost everyone is pulling for. Early career success suggested he had the talent his dad did. Unfortunatley I think he's more like the next Kyle Petty. Making the Chase was a big improvement over prior years. The best they can hope for is to visit victory lane once this year.
#9 Kurt Busch (-28) 22-1 odds
Kurt (Kyle's older brother) is one of five past champions in the Chase. Earlier in the season he looked like a real contender, but has put himself in a tough spot after two races into the Chase. His only chance of getting back in this is to figure out what his teammate Brad Keselowski has done to run so well lately.
#10 Jimmie Johnson (-29) 7-1 odds
I can't believe JJ is sitting where he is. Two years ago I predicted he would win his 4th straight championship, and he did. Last year I said his run was over, and I was wrong! This year, I really think his reign is over, but his odds are still decent, because no other team can overcome adversity like the 48.
#11 Ryan Newman (-34) 200-1 odds
Newman's season was a big improvement over prior years, but he was never championship material even before falling way behind. I expect him to just fall further back over the coming weeks.
#12 Denny Hamlin (-66) 125-1 odds
Last year Denny almost won the championship. This year they have been terrible. Well, maybe not terrible, but he was the last driver to make the chase, and after two bad runs has dug himself into a deeper hole. If he wins at Taladega while the other 11 drivers crash, then he'll have a chance, but still not a good one.
We'll check back in late November and see how I did!
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Dana's photo project
Last year I got Dana a cool camera for her birthday, then this Spring she was taking a series of photography classes. Since opportunities to be a running model don't knock on my door very often (ok never), I was excited when she chose a pair of my running shoes for a class project (the Brooks T5 racers which I set my half marathon and 30K PRs if you have to know). There were even a few picture of these shoes on my feet.
Monday, August 22, 2011
2011 Dipsea
When I ran my first Dipsea Race in 2009, it quickly became my favorite race. It wouldn’t be terribly inaccurate to say the Dipsea was my favorite race even first I toed the line that first year. For a detailed description of the race & course, it's here recap from 2009 or 2010, but to summarize it:
- is the 2nd oldest foot race in the US behind the Boston Marathon
- covers 7.5 miles from Mill Valley to Stinson Beach, CA climbing and descending over 2000 of elevation, up hundreds of steps, down hundreds of steps, long brutal climbs, steep dangerous descents, and even gives knowledgeable participants opportunities to take shortcuts
- assigns each participant into 1 of 25 starting groups based on their age and gender, so that in theory the overall winner could be any age – a 33 year old runner such as myself starts 1 minute before the “scratch” group of 19-30 year old males, and 24 minutes after the first group to starts (consisting of the youngest and oldest runners)
- instead of awarding age group prizes, hands out 35 black numbered t-shirts to the first 35 runners (out of 1500) to cross the finish line (each having received their assigned handicap at the start) – I won my first black shirt last year by finishing 19th
From my past two races, I had always wondered what it would be like to finish 36th place – to miss the black t-shirts and participating in the award ceremony by one spot. Sure it wouldn’t be anything like the anguish of finishing 4th in the Olympic Trials, or being the last person to not qualify for the NCAA championships in a track race, but has to be disappointing nonetheless. Hmmm… Glad I didn’t think about it too much…
Heading into the race, I was coming off a great season of training, but whether for reasons of over-training, or just peaking too early, I had just seemed to lose the snap in my stride for the month leading up to the race, and was struggling to recover between hard workouts. But to make matters worse, I came down with a cold exactly a week before the race. Lots of sleep, hydration, echinacea , and vitamin C just couldn’t shake it.
Despite the setback, I drove to Mill Valley the morning of the race with a good attitude. My prior goal of finishing in the top 10 would likely be out of reach, but I was extremely confident I could and would finish in the top 35 and win a black shirt. Last year it took a time of approximately 54:30 (from my +1 minute starting group) to crack the shirts – and 54 flat would have won a shirt in each of the past 15 years. Considering I ran 52:40 last year, and all my training indicated better fitness this year, I envisioned taking the race by feel, and if the cold was holding me back, just run a conservative race and shoot for 54 flat. I could do this by running 30 seconds slower up and over the first climb to Muir Woods, 30 seconds slower up the big Cardiac Hill climb, then finally 20 seconds slower on the long decent (mostly) to the finish.
As the gun went off, my legs were feeling heavy before we even hit the steps. This is never a welcoming sign, but from my many many years of racing, I’ve learned that the way my legs feel – good or bad – can be very deceiving early in a race. More important is how I’m breathing, and my lungs told me every was ok so far. Up the first of 671 steps, I let 3 runners in my starting group charge ahead as I just searched for a rhythm that I could survive. At the top of the stairs, when the course continued to climb up, I felt comfortable for the first time. Before we crested, I had moved past quite a few runners who started before me, and caught one of the three guys who were ahead from my starting group. On the first decent, I again just found a rhythm and tried to use my much improved downhill running skills to pass as many runners as I could. “Suicide” – the steepest downhill on the course, was very congested, but I just kept yelling ON YOUR LEFT ON YOUR LEFT COMING THROUGH as loud as I could. A couple of middle aged men really didn’t appreciate my aggressiveness, but since they had the option of taking the safer (and slightly longer) route, I really didn’t care. Although if I had to do it over again, I probably wouldn’t have shouted back at one of the guys – that didn’t help keep me in my mental rhythm.
At the bottom of suicide a weird thing happened. Somehow I had expended too much energy on the downhill as I was suddenly taking fast, deep breaths. This was NOT GOOD considering I had 20 minutes of climbing about to start. I just tried to relax, and again get ready to find a rhythm as I cross through Miur Woods and up the hill.
The base of the Cardiac Hill climb – a footbridge across a creek in Miur Woods – is always my first check point. I clicked my watch in 15:30 which was nearly identical to last year – a big surprise to me – and 30 seconds faster than what was necessary to be guaranteed a black shirt.
As I started up the climb, I knew I needed to run the first - a very steep – section conservatively so that I could be rolling during the less steep latter half. Just as we start climbing my buddies and Pelican Inn teammates, Alex & Gus blow past me from the scratch group en route to them running the two fastest actual times of the day. As I kept pressing up the hill, I knew I wasn’t running fast, but just couldn’t do anything about it. On flatter sections when I tried to pick up the pace at all, I just felt myself red-lining quickly. Two more runners from the scratch group went past me, but I was able to keep one slightly in sight.
The section just before the top of Cardiac Hill is the steepest of the race. I was so tired at this point, it took a serious effort just to keep my legs moving in a running motion. My split for the climb was a very unimpressive 21:40. In my mind I thought at 37 minutes I was still on my black shirt pace, but was really 10 seconds off pace now. To put that split in perspective, I had run the double dipsea course in training a couple of months earlier, running that same climb in less than 21 minutes with Gus while chatting the whole way.
On the gradual downhill that leads to the steep downhill, I was in thicker traffic than last year simply because I was further back in the field. At this point I’m feeling achy & my head was swimming. I kept pressing because I knew there would be some relief ahead as I started downhill, but it was tough to get myself rolling past runners. One guy from the Pelican Inn crew who I passed here later told me that I just didn’t look right considering how slowly I pulled away from him after I passed.
At the top of the swoop – the second of two steep downhills – an observer yelled out “70th!” Oh man, that’s not good, I still have to pass 35 runners! As I caught the first two runners in the swoop I had a hard time getting past – but then I realized I had no time to waste. I started yelling loud as I approached people – LEFT, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT – and pretty much dove for whichever side of the trail they were leaning away from. I passed a buddy , Chris Knorzer, there who later posted on my facebook page “When you passed me there I thought you were about to get planted in the bushes, but I got swooped, nice job.” I got back in a rhythm finally passing runners quickly down the swoop, then the steps of steep ravine. I passed last year’s winner, now 9 year old, Reilly Johnson who must have found even worse struggles than me on the course, and offered a quick LET’S GO REILLY. At the bottom of Insult Hill a course worker yelled out 45TH! Ok, 10 runners to pass with just over a mile to go, I can do this. I caught two runners as we pushed up insult – 44th, 43rd. Again the dead legs hit me going up the last hill, but I was going to collapse before I gave up. By the top of the hill I was up to 41st. We hit a short section of Panoramic Highway, passed one runner heading down the road – 40th – and a second just before plunging back on a narrow single track trail – 39th. I squeezed past two more runners, the second was 72 year old Russ Kieran who’s amazing record streak of 15 straight black t-shirts would end this year – 37th. Now feeling much better about sneaking into the stop 35, I’m looking up ahead for the next runner, and no one is there. Finally after what seemed like minutes, I blow past another runner - 36th. Just before we leave the trail for the last time some yells “36th, 35th IS 20 SECONDS AHEAD.” With 1/3 of a mile to go, this was very bad news, but I had no idea who this runner was. If it was someone from the 2 minute headstart group, I had almost no chance of catching him, but if it was someone from the 25 minute headstart group, I would almost certainly catch him/her. Also, they could have grossly misestimated. But no time to think about any of this… only time to kick!
I came onto the road for the last time, and finally saw 35th place WAY up ahead. It seemed impossible, but with a mostly downhill last third of a mile, I just started kicking. The runner disappeared around a bend, then when he came back in sight it still seemed impossible, so I did the only thing I could do – kept kicking. I kept digging deeper and deeper trying to claim every drop out of the well. The runner was now getting within reach, but the finish line was flying toward me even faster. I never gave up until I saw his body cross the finish line, and at that point my momentum took me across the line only 1 second behind him in 36th place. My time was 54:15 - which was 15 seconds off the time I thought would guarantee a black shirt.
When I crossed the line, I heard someone say my name, but I never took my eyes off my adversary – who I learned was 46 year old Thomas Iseler. I extended my hand, told him great job, and that I had given it my all in trying to catch him. Thomas told me it was his first black shirt in several tries, so surely we was experiencing the same thrill I did last year. As he patted my shoulder, I saw a photographer run up and snap a couple shots. Leaving the shoot a reporter from the local Marin IJ newspaper came up to me for some quotes – I guess we weren’t the only two who were aware of the finishing battle.
The paper covers the race extensively and even ran a short column on our battle for the final black t-shirt:
Dipsea: Isener earns final black shirt by holding off storming Gifford
Later this video was posted on youtube. You see Iseler hit the road for the final time 6 minutes into the video. I was 25 seconds back with a third of a mile to go. I made up 24 seconds – tough luck!
The day wasn’t a total bummer by any stretch. Our team for the Dipsea – the Pelican Inn Track Club – which is the fantastic group of both young and old runners that I have trained with the past three years, became the first team to beat the Tamalpa Runners for the team title in 35 years. While I wasn’t one of the top five runners to score, I felt very much a part of it. For many years Tamalpa’s team title was a formality, until the PITC entered as a team last year. In 2010, I was the 5th scoring runner for the squad, but we just missed winning. When they announced us as the winners it sounded like a funeral, except for our cheer, but we enjoyed the celebratory beers!
While last year’s winner was 8 year old Reilly Johnson, this year’s winner came from a Dipsea veteran. 60 year old Jamie Rivers was a prior champion – winning in 2007, and she is married to 2008 winner Roy Rivers. I’ve learned many things about the race, and received great encouragement from both runners. I was very happy to see Jamie win the race this year. Last year she suffered a hamstring injury during the race, but still cheered on other runners as she hobbled to the finish. Jamie’s training had gone flawlessly this Spring, and on raceday no one would catch her.
When I drove home I felt pretty bummed out about finishing one spot out of the awards – how could I not? At one point I started thinking about spots in the race where maybe I could have made up tiny bits of time to put me one place forward. But I quickly stopped myself. I was dealt a crummy hand, and I truly believe I made the most of it. I ran myself into the ground at the finish, and almost came out with something special. Looking back at the first half of 2011, would I do anything that differently? Probably not… Running is a tough sport sometimes. You have days you feel great, and days you don’t. The same extends to weeks, months, even seasons. Finishing 36th really put in perspective how amazing Russ Kiernan’s 30 black t-shirts are. Next year I’ll be back for my 2nd!
*That's how close I was!
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