Yes, when I started this blog, I threatened to write about NASCAR from time to time. Since it's been 2 years, I think it's time!
The NASCAR season is two races into its ten race Chase to the Championship playoff format. I've really enjoyed the season so far, with its multiple first time winners - starting with 20 year old Trevor Bayne's shocker at Daytona - and excellent feuds like Jimmie Johnson vs Kurt Busch.
So just before the green flag drops at race #3 Dover, here is how I see each of the 12 eligible drivers chances. (Drivers are listed in order of their current rank with # of points behind the leader. At each race 1 point is awarded for 43rd place, increasing 1 point per place up to 42 points for 2nd, and 47 points for the win).
Driver (Points back) Odds to win the Chase
#1 Tony Stewart (0) 12-1 odds
Stewart barely qualified for the Chase after struggling throughout the summer. Then he comes in and wins the first two races of the playoff to take the points lead and place himself well ahead of pre-chase favorites like Jimmie Johnson & Kyle Busch. I'm not convinced yet. Tony was very impressive the last two weeks, but on the whole it has still been a slightly better than mediocre year.
#2 Kevin Harvick (-7) 8-1 odds
I think Harvick will end up being a lot more dangerous in this Chase than Tony Stewart. Over the past few years Harvick has proven himself good at winning races he shouldn't have won. If he can win 2 or 3 races he'll be in a great spot. His weakness was his lack of consistency throughout the season. It only takes a couple mid pack finishes to put your championship dreams in jeopardy.
#3 Brad Keselowski (-11) 5-1 odds
In early July I wouldn't have even taken 5-1 odds on BK making the Chase. Then after improving throughout July, he won at Pocono, followed by a 2nd, then a 3rd, then another win at Bristol. In the last 8 races, his worst finish was 12th, and second worst finish was 6th. History would suggest his current streak has to cool off at some point. If he runs the next 8 races anywhere close to as well as the last 8, then he'll be hoisting the Sprint Cup trophy after the Homestead race, and there won't be anyone close to him.
#4 Carl Edwards (-14) 7-2 odds
Edwards is officially my favorite to win the Cup this year. He is tied for the most top 5's (13) and has more top 10's (19) than any other driver. Edwards will look forward to 4 more mile and a half tracks where he runs better than any other driver. His weakness is that he only has one win on the season. I'll say this - he won't win the championhip without winning at least one race - most likely at Kansas, Charlotte, or Texas.
#5 Jeff Gordon (-23) 8-1 odds
Gordon is the first of several contenders who dug himself into an early hole with a 24th place finish at Chicago. The 40 year old is far from out of it. He was run well, and he's been there before - it's just been been a while!
#6 Kyle Busch (-26) 10-1 odds
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Kyle Busch is the most talented driver in NASCAR. He's still only 26 years old with 23 wins at the Cup level (not to mention a gazillion in the lower series). Kyle is tied for the most wins (4) and top 5's (13) this season. If Kyle does what he is best at - winning races - he will be the champion. His past weakness was a lack of maturity. He has to find a way to run well on those days when things aren't going right. He's gotten much better this year, and when he finally gets a full handle on his emotions, he'll be a multiple time Cup champion
#7 Matt Kenseth (-26) 20-1 odds
Kenseth is a past champion, but it was before NASCAR introduced the playoff format. He has had a solid year and will have a solid Chase, but unless several other drivers have a lot of bad luck, Kenseth won't be a real factor.
#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-26) 100-1 odds
Dale Jr is that guy who almost everyone is pulling for. Early career success suggested he had the talent his dad did. Unfortunatley I think he's more like the next Kyle Petty. Making the Chase was a big improvement over prior years. The best they can hope for is to visit victory lane once this year.
#9 Kurt Busch (-28) 22-1 odds
Kurt (Kyle's older brother) is one of five past champions in the Chase. Earlier in the season he looked like a real contender, but has put himself in a tough spot after two races into the Chase. His only chance of getting back in this is to figure out what his teammate Brad Keselowski has done to run so well lately.
#10 Jimmie Johnson (-29) 7-1 odds
I can't believe JJ is sitting where he is. Two years ago I predicted he would win his 4th straight championship, and he did. Last year I said his run was over, and I was wrong! This year, I really think his reign is over, but his odds are still decent, because no other team can overcome adversity like the 48.
#11 Ryan Newman (-34) 200-1 odds
Newman's season was a big improvement over prior years, but he was never championship material even before falling way behind. I expect him to just fall further back over the coming weeks.
#12 Denny Hamlin (-66) 125-1 odds
Last year Denny almost won the championship. This year they have been terrible. Well, maybe not terrible, but he was the last driver to make the chase, and after two bad runs has dug himself into a deeper hole. If he wins at Taladega while the other 11 drivers crash, then he'll have a chance, but still not a good one.
We'll check back in late November and see how I did!
