Olympic Trials Predictions

The Olympic Track and Field Trials got underway yesterday with the hammer throw, and track action starts tonight in Eugene, Oregon with the men's and women's 10,000s! NBC Sports (formerly Versus) will pick up coverage tonight at 6pm PT, and that and NBC will cover the meet extensively over the next week. Here's the schedule:

http://www.usatf.org/Events---Calendar/2012/U-S--Olympic-Team-Trials-TF/Results.aspx

To make the Olympic team an athlete must be in the top 3 and meet the Olympic "A" qualifying standard.  If an athlete in the top 3 does not have or match that standard in the race, then the next athlete to finish with that standard will make the team. 

Men's 10,000 meters
June 22nd
Olympic A standard:  27:45

This year's 10,000 meter field will be the deepest in years if not ever at the Olympic Trials.  There will be 8 runners who already have the A standard, and another 8 or so who are pretty close.  In 2000 if you came into the trials with a 28:00 qualifying time you were automatically a contender, now this year there are 13 runners under, and in some cases way under that mark.

The favorite:

Despite the depth of the field there is a heavy favorite - former Oregon star Galan Rupp.  Rupp first showed his precocious talent back in the high school, and steadily gotten better throughout college and as a professional.  Yet there often seemed to be somebody around to steal his thunder.  I think back to Josh MacDougal upsetting him to win the NCAA cross country championship.  Then I was at the Stanford track meet where Rupp was making an attempt at the American 10,000 record when Chris Solinsky ran away from him in the final two laps two be the first American under 27 minutes.  Still, every year Rupp has gotten better.  Now he is the American record holder at 26:48, has shown exceptional speed running 3:34 for the 1500 meters (under the Olympic A standard in that event).  The only person who might have had a shot - Chris Solinksy - is hurt, but even then I just can't see Rupp losing at this distance.  Crazier things have happened than Rupp losing this race, but not that much crazier.  This is the safest bet among all the mid-distance and distance races.

The next two spots:

If you asked 10 people you might get 10 different answers - well at least 5 - on who will take these next two spots.  Here are my predictions.

2nd:  Dathan Ritzenheim - A talented but injury prone runner who is overdue for some good luck.  He ran a fabulous race at the Olympic Marathon Trial, but a late cramp dropped him just off the pace, still he rallied to just miss the team by less than 30 seconds.  In 2008 he finished in the top 10 in the Olympics marathon, then later in the summer broker the American 5000 record (now held by Bernard Lagat).  I think he'll put it together but there will be a lot of track between him and Rupp after 25 laps.

3rd:  Chris Derrick - The best runner to never win an NCAA championship still walked away from his senior track campaign with the American Collegiate record of 27:31.  There's been at least a couple Stanford runners make the Olympic team every year since 2000, and I think he'll join Ryan Hall who is already on the marathon team.

Sentimental favorite:  Matt Tegenkamp - Teg is the current American record holder for the 2 mile (8:07) and one of only 4 American born athlete to break 13 minutes in the 5,000.  He has been off his best form recently as he's now 30, but don't count him out.  In the mid-2000s he brought the fearlessness back to American Track & Field not seen since Bob Kennedy.

Dark horse:  It's tough to call him a dark horse, but I'll pick Brent Vaughn.  His track times (27:40) aren't worthy of that label, but he has never been competitive in a championship race on the track at the professional level.

Really Dark horse:  James Strang went to my high school a few years after me, and comes in with a 28:12 qualifying time.  He lacks the A standard, but anything can happen in a race like this.


Women's 10,000 meters
June 22nd
Olympic A standard:  31:45

The favorite:

Shalane Flanagan - The 2008 Olympic bronze medalist in this event has qualified for the marathon, so just running this meet for bragging rights (unless she changes her mind and runs both).  She'll have some competition, but I just can't see her losing.  That said - again unless she changes her mind - the race for the three Olympic spots will be behind her.

The next three:

This field is very top heavy, but nowhere near the depth as the men's field.  In fact, after Flanagan only three more runners have the A stanford.  If Shalane wins as I predict and sticks and passes on the 10,000 at the games then all Lisa Uhl (formerly Koll), Janet Cherobon-Bawcom, and Amy Hastings have to do is finish - assuming nobody else gains the A standard at the trials.  However one that is unlikely in that environment (with no pace setters), and I'll think they'll finish in that order above.  If Hastings finishes 4th that will repeat her marathon trials where a great performance still left her one spot off the team.  However, this time she will get to represent the US in London. 



Men's 800 meters
June 25th
Olympic A standard:  1:45.60

The 800 meter final at the 2008 trials was epic.  Three runners with Oregon connections - OTC runners Nick Symmonds and Christian Smith plus Oregon sophomore Andrew Wheating were at the tail of the field after the first of two laps.  With 200m to go Symmonds has moved up but is boxed in.  Then on the final straight Symmonds dusts the field, Wheating blows by on the outside to finish second, and Christian Smith somehow dives past co-favorite Khadevis Robinson to take the 3rd spot. 

This year I think Robinson who made the 2004 team, but finished 4th in the trials in 2000 and 2008 gets the monkey off his back.  Although we won't win as Nick Symmonds is the class of the field and an outside medal threat in the games

1st:  Nick Symmonds
2nd:  Khedevis Robinson
3rd:  Robby Andrews (who skipped his senior season at Virginia to turn pro and prepare for the trials)



Women's 1500 meters
July 1
Olympic A standard:  4:06

This race features the 2011 world champion Jenny Simpson, 2009 world championship Shannon Rowbury, yet my pick is Morgan Uceny.  Uceny was winning European Diamond League meets left and right last summer, only to get knocked down in the 1500 meter final at the World Championships.  If she hadn't gone down, we may well have seen a 1-2 sweep for the USA.  Rowbury is an interesting case because she has struggled with injuries the last two years, and just hasn't shown the sort of fitness yet that she did in years past.  She may well have been last fit last summer, yet somehow found a way to grab the 3rd spot and go to the world championships.  Several runners have better PRs then Rowbury, but she's excellent in tactical races, and I think she'll make it happen.

1st:  Morgan Uceny
2nd:  Jenny Simpson
3rd:  Shannon Rowbury



Men's 1500 meters
July 1
Olympic A standard:  3:35.5

Now here's a race that's wide open!  Bernard Lagat (who ran the 2nd fastest time in history as a Kenyan) will not be in the field in the US championships for the 1st time since gaining his citizenship. 

The favorite:

Matt centrowitz won last year's NCAA championship making it look easy blasting away from the field in the last 200 meters.  I figured it would look a lot different when the kid went up against the big boys at the US Championships, but once again a super smooth kick held off Bernard Lagat to win that meet.  At the word championships the 21 year old advanced through his heat, then in the semifinal race he made a sneaky pass right on the inside rail with a lap to go to led the field and win that race.  The night before the final I asked a knowledgeable buddy if it was crazy to think he could medal, and the answer was no.  Sure enough a beautiful tactical race in the final and a 51 second last lap won him the bronze behind two Kenyans.  However, Centro has battled an injury this spring which indicates he's out of top form. 

The next two spots:

Other than Centrowitz there's probably 4 other guys who should make the Olympic team - Leo Manzano (Texas Grad with a low 3:50s mile), Andrew Wheating (NCAA champ at 1500 & 800 at Oregon, and 2008 800m Olympian), Robby Andrews, David Torrence.  There's several others who potentially could sneak in the top 3 - Russell Brown, Jordan McNamara, Jeff See..

Unfortunately only two of these guys will make it.  This pick is tough because the race is so wide open, especially given the propensity for this type of race to move at an early tactical pace setting up a wild finish.  I think given Centro's injuries he won't win, but will make the team and be ready for London.

1st:  Leo Manzano (this is bold, but he's fast & rarely makes mistakes)
2nd:  Matt Centrowitz
3rd:  David Torrence (semi-dark horse, but he's been knocking on the door in recent years)


Men's 5,000 meters
June 28
Olympic A standard:  13:20

While the men's 1500 meters might be the most dramatic this race might be the most interesting.  It's really a shame that Chris Solinksy won't be in the field (or in the 10,000 due to his injury) after he broke 13 minutes three times in 2010 and almost broke Bernard Lagat in the US championships as they both ran under 4 minutes for the last mile of that race.  However a new threat burst onto the scene this spring.

Lopez Lomong escaped Sudan as a boy - one of the Lost Boys - and found his way to the US.  As he grew up he discovered his talent for running, but was a middle distance runner through high school and college.  In 2008 he made the Olympic team in the 1500 and was given the honor of carrying the US flag at the opening ceremony.  At the Payton Jordan invite at Stanford in May I saw his 5,000 debut.  Running with a strong field he moved to the lead and really accelerated with 800 meters to go.  On the backstretch he opened a huge lead and I started to wonder if he had miscounted laps.  On the home stretch there was no doubt as he opened an all out sprint with still a lap to go.  As he crossed the line he clearly didn't look at the clock or hear the bell as he threw up his arms.  Every person around the track started screaming and waving.  After a second he realizes and starts running again.  He doesn't really get going until halfway through the turn (with 350 meters to go), and by the back stretch is digging again.  The look of pain of his face was unmistakable, but he held off the charging field to win in 13:11 - way under the Olympic A standard.  For a race that he royally screwed up in, it was one of the most sensational runs I've ever seen.  His second to last lap was in 52 seconds - the sort of kick that can win an Olympic medal if done off a slightly faster pace (and if done after 11.5 laps instead of 10.5 laps).  I'm dying to see what he can do!

The favorite:

Bernard Lagat is one of the greatest runners of this generation.  He graduated from Washington State as a multi-time NCAA champion.  In 2000 he represented his native Kenya and took the bronze medal in the 1500.  In 2004 he won the Silver behind the world record holder Hicham El Guerrouj.  He has run still the second fastest 1500 meter time in history at 3:26.  In 2005 he became a US citizen.  In 2007 he won world championships in the 1500 and 5000 meters as a US citizen.  He disappointingly missed the medal stand in Beijing, but won two medals in the 2009 world championships, and last summer finally focusing on just the 5000 meters won the silver at the world champs.  This may well be his last season, but he can still has a shot at winning that elusive Olympic Gold medal. 

I think Lopez will give Lagat a very serious challenge in the trials, but Lagat's racing tactics will give him one last national championship. 

The last spot:

There are quite a few worthy contenders, but I think Galan Rupp will be right there.  He ran a huge PR at the Prefontaine classic earlier this month in 12:58.  The only reason I am picking him third is because he'll have some junk in his legs from the 10,000 and the prelim round of the 5,000 three days earlier. 

Dark Horse:

I think my claim to fame as a high school runner is that it took Andrew Bambalough until his senior  year to break my course record at the Tennessee state cross country meet.  Then of course he crushed it!  He's gotten better and better throughout his college career and has been running really well as a pro.  He enters with a 13:16 PR and is getting closer and closer to that top level.  I think it would take either Rupp withdrawing to focus on the 10,000 or perhaps Lomong making a tactical mistake, but he should at least be in the hunt with 2 laps to go. 

 Sentimental Favorite:

Matt Tegenkamp:  see above in the 10,000


Enjoy the trials!  I know I will. 

Marin Memorial Day 10K

Last week I was telling Dana (my lovely wife for those who don't know her) that I was really excited for the next two races - the Marin 10K and the Dipsea Race.  This spring season hadn't featured the consistently high mileage (by my standards) and epic workouts that I logged the prior spring, yet my race results have been much much better.  I decided to not get so caught up on how my training looked on paper, rather be patient - work really hard when I'm able, but rest when I needed to.  Also, a big mistake I made last year was trying to train through competitive races.  It has been a small adjustment, and if you compared my training log year over year you might say I'm not training as hard, but it's tough to argue this is working better when my 5K races have been ~30 seconds faster than the prior year. 

On memorial day I laced up the flats for the Marin Memorial Day 10K.  The race is on a flat, fast course in the shadows of Mt Tam (where I'll be racing the Dipsea in a week).  While it's a great opportunity to run fast, this race really had my number the prior two times I ran.  The only question mark for me was whether the 5K focused training would translate to twice the distance.  I just had to hope the occasional progressive tempo runs, the two 10 mile races from the early season, and even the Bay to Breakers centipede effort would fill the gap of not doing longer interval sessions.  Regardless, I told myself to push it all out of my head and just be confident as I've had great momentum recently.  The goal was to run 5:15 pace - a mid 32 minute effort.

The race went off & I just didn't feel very smooth.  In the 1st mile I settled in behind a couple masters runners, including the mighty 55 year old Brian Pilcher.  I was a little concerned with how I felt, but tried to stay as loose and relaxed as possible.  I hit the mile mark in 5:11, not a bad split, just wanted it to feel easier.  By the 2 mile mark, teammates Rookie and Gus ran by & opened a small gap.  I hit that split in 5:19.  It was a very slight uphill, but had to make the decision to ignore how I felt, and just trust the training that I'd be fine to push a bit harder.  So I threw a surge and caught up to my teammates, and even led the train for a while running the 3rd mile in 5:06.  There wasn't a 5k split but from the 3m I guessed half way was about 16:10.  Feeling more energized, on pace, and even thinking how I just ran the first half faster than most my 5K races last year, I kept pressing on. 

Our group strung out a bit in the second half of the race, but just kept as close to Gus as I could, telling myself to relax, and throwing little surges when I needed to catch up.  From half way I moved up 1-2 positions each mile.  The 4 mile split was 5:13, the 5th in 5:14, then the 6th in 5:21 (with a slight headwind).  The race ended with 250 meters on a track, and I kicked it in when I heard some footsteps behind.

The final time was 32:26 for 19th place - my fastest 10K since the 90s!  Our West Valley team had a very strong day with 7 guys under 33 minutes (I was the 5th).  It's exciting to see how well our team is doing, and that it's a combination of new guys joining, and existing guys working hard and getting faster.

The race was satisfying one because I set a challenging goal and accomplished it.  It also was good to have a day where thing didn't just automatically click - like those rare days you always dream about - but was able to stay tough and confident, and race hard the entire way. 

Next up is the 102nd Dipsea!  I've been pretty tired this week, but that's to be expected.  I'll take a decent taper week, and can't wait to show up in Mill Valley Sunday morning feeling strong.

* The finish